National Consultancy: Development of Climate Profiles, Vulnerability Assessment Maps etc.for the Territorial Approach to Climate Change (TACC) project for the Mbale region of Uganda

Background:
The Territorial Approach to Climate Change (TACC) project for the Mbale region of Uganda is being implemented by UNDP and benefits from financial support provided by the Danish Embassy, DFID and UNDP, as well as from technical and development support provided by the Welsh Assembly Government. This is a pilot project for the UNDP-UNEP Global Initiative, “Down to Earth: Territorial Approach to Climate Change”. The project will provide a coordinated mitigation and adaptation plan to combat the negative impacts of climate change in three districts (Mbale, Manafwa and Bududa) of the Mbale Region of Uganda. The project will help to enable the Mbale region of Uganda realize low carbon and climate change resilient development. Towards this objective, the project will assist the Mbale region to develop their Integrated Territorial Climate Plan (ITCP), which will integrate climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies into regional development planning. This will include developing a policy and investment plan that will identify appropriate regulatory and financial instruments for the implementation of the actions that have been selected by the ITCP and assist the region to access, combine and sequence a variety of financial resources needed to implement the ITCP.

The project outputs include:

• A platform for climate change planning and programming;
• Capacity built to integrate climate change issues into regional development plans and actions;
• An Integrated Territorial Climate Plan (ITCP) for the Mbale region;
• A climate change policy and investment package;
• Synthesis and dissemination (within and beyond Uganda) of lessons learned and best practices.

Likely climate changes in the Mbale region:

The Uganda National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPA) (RoU, 2007) notes that climate change may lead to an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, including droughts, floods, landslides  and heat waves.

The report further notes (inter alia) that:

• Rainfall is the most sensitive climate variable that affects social and economic activities;
• Observed rainfall has been falling with greater intensityin some regions;
• Western, northern and northeastern districts are experiencing long droughts, which are becoming more frequent
• Recent years have witnessed erratic onset and cessation of rainfall seasons.  This is coupled with increasing frequency of droughts;
• Sustained warming particularly over southern parts of Uganda.

The Mbale TACC Project is working in three districts (Mbale, Manafwa and Bududa) in the Mbale “territory” and the Project Document provides more detail on the specific project area, including:

• “Climate change is showing mainly through changes in an increasingly erratic rainfall regime. The wet season normally beginning in March can be delayed in arrival, whilst the end of each rainy season is attenuated. Rainfall is very often of increased intensity.”
• “More intense rainfall events are likely to result in an increase in soil erosion and landslide(s) , with consequent agricultural and infrastructure disruption. An increase in flood events, including flooded latrines with associated water contamination is also a probability. There is also a strong likelihood of an increase in malarial areas as disease vectors respond to climate change.”
• Increased evapo-transpiration will stress crops in some localities.

Approach for developing a climate profile:

Details of the prospective range of climate projections for the Mbale region are needed to inform investment strategies that will facilitate the transition to climate-resilient development. This consultancy will use quantitative data for the Mable region and neighbouring districts (including from nearby stations in Kenya, if available) to develop a climate profile. This will include identifying past and recent trends, assessing the future climate simulated by global circulation models (GCMs) and downscaled  models (if available), to project the potential future exposure of the region to climate hazards  to 2030, 2050 and beyond (see UNDP, 2010).

Vulnerability to climate change:

The Uganda NAPA (RoU, 2007) highlighted that (inter alia) water resources, agriculture, health, forestry and wildlife are particularly vulnerable sectors inthe Ugandan economy.

Following determination of how climate parameters in the project area are likely to change in the coming years (to 2030, 2050 and beyond) the study will use digital mapping and associated data of the project districts to assess and produce maps showing the spatial distribution of the risks and vulnerabilities of communities and economies to the projected impacts of climate change. This is necessary as different physical environments respond in different ways, even if they are exposed to the same manifestation of climate change e.g.Manafwa District (only 451km2 in area) there are likely to be differences in the effects of climate change between the savanna grasslands of the lowlands, the tropical rainforest ecosystem and the alpine mountainous areas in Mount Elgon National Park. The sensitivity of the physical environment to hazards has knock-on effects (negative and also positive) for the human use of that environment. Different sectors (agriculture, water, energy, tourism, fisheries, health, and biodiversity) will all differ depending on their sensitivity to the predicted changes.

The impacts of climate change are also mediated by the human characteristics of the society in which they occur. The adaptive capacity of society is correlated with various social factors, including gender, ethnicity, religion, class and age. Together these social factors tend to give rise to differences in human capital (such as levels of education and status of health), financial capital (wealth) and access to governance and institutions, which in turn affect ability to anticipate, cope with, and respond to change). Since these all vary on the micro scale, theseare particularly important when working out vulnerability acrossMbale territory.

Of particular relevance to the vulnerability mapping is the widely accepted analysis that climate change affects men and women (and also the young) differently. Adolescent girls and adult women have a key role of looking after households. They spend long hours in search of water and firewood, even longer in times of drought - depriving them of time for other productive economic activities. During floods, water- and sanitation-related diseases are more prevalent, which affects women as they spend more time attending to sick family members, predisposing them to increased health risks and reduced income generation. Women are disproportionately killed or displaced in natural disasters, as they tend to remain longer in homesteads trying to protect them.

The consultant(s) will, with the support of staff of the Global TACC Facility, the project’s Senior Technical Advisor and the Welsh Assembly Government, also in close consultation with national agencies and district climate focal persons:

• Analyse meteorological data from Mbale and surrounding areas to look for past and recent trends;
• Develop climate change profiles for Mbale region, based on GCMs and downscaled climate change data (if available);
• Undertake risk and vulnerability assessments;
• Create vulnerability maps.

Analysis of available meteorological data:

There is only one continuously operating weather station in the Mbale Region (at Mbale District Headquarters). The contractors will obtain data from this station, together with any other data available including from the ranger posts within the Mt Elgon National Park and from meteorological stations in neighbouring districts (including from nearby stations in Kenya, if available) .

These data will be used to identify past weather and climate trends, including the following steps:

• Quality control of available data;
• Detecting homogeneities in the data due to factors other than climate change;
• Analysis of current climate, which should include publically available data such as gridded 0.5 degree data from the Climate Research unit (CRU) in UK + any available station (point) data from Uganda and Kenya - needed to compare these to see how well the current climate can be characterised. (Also check and review any other already developed data for the region.);

Then projecting into the future:

• Review of simulated change for the wider region (Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, DRC etc) from the GCMs (coarse scale approx 2 degrees);
• If feasible, review any downscaled data that may be available (either regional climate models or statistical downscaling);
• Calculation of the frequency and trends of indices of extreme climate from station data that are long enough;
• Comparison of the results with other publicly available datasets and published data for the region.

Development of climate change profiles:

Using the results from the analysis of meteorological data (1. above), the consultants should develop climate change projections for Mbale territory.
In order to reconcile planning activities that span different time scales, it is important to carry out the mapping of the impacts of climate change over at least two time horizons: 2030 (near future), 2050 and beyond (dependent on data availability / quality - to be agreed with project Manager and Global TACC).
The following questions are suggested as guidelines for the quantitative analysis of current and future climate scenarios, though the exact parameters of climate (rainfall, temperature etc.) and their timescale (daily, monthly etc.) will be determined through consultation with the Global TACC and informed by the analysis of vulnerability in 3 and 4 below.

• Question: Will the projected extremes inthe future increase? 
  Comment:Are these extremes of greater or smaller magnitude than present and past extremes of temperature and rainfall?
• Question:What is the projected periodicity of extreme events (e.g., droughts, floods, heat waves) in the future?
  Comment:How does it differ from present and past periodicity?
  (Is the period of time between extreme events getting shorter or longer?)
• Question:Inter-annual variability: what is the overall trend in the future?
  Comment:Is there a general increase or decrease in inter-annual variability?
  How does the change relate to present and past data?
  How do the changes compare to variations between cold and warm or wet and dry years in the past?
• Question:Intra-annual variability: how are the parameters projected to vary within each year? 
  Comment:What is the difference between the highest and lowest temperatures, and highest and lowest rainfall figures, within a year period?
  How does this compare to present and past data?
• Question:Can I find episodes of the past that look like what I expect in the future?
  Comment:These kinds of “natural experiments” are useful to assess what are possible impacts and societal responses.

The consultant should ensure that they clearly document the inherent strengths and weaknesses of the climate scenarios to make sure that it is correctly contextualised.

Risk and vulnerability assessments:

Climate change vulnerability for the environment, society and economy of the three districts of Mbale territory refers to the state of their susceptibility to harm from exposure to climate hazards and the ability of the territory to cope with and recover from such exposure as well as to manage incremental and long-term changes in climate.
To determine and map the vulnerability of the Mbale territory (section 4), in this section the consultants should gather the following information (from 2 above – and consultations across the project districts and to national level).

• Determine how much the environment, society and economy of Mbale, Manafwa and Bududa Districts will be affected (i.e. how sensitive it is to the change):
  How will existing sectors of society (population, agriculture, water, energy, tourism, fisheries, health, infrastructure and biodiversity) be affected by the projected climate changes?
  Are there current socio-economic trends that interact with these sensitivities (and in particular run the risk of amplifying them)?
• Assess the territory’s potential to cope with, recover and adjust to the impacts of climate change (i.e. it’s adaptive capacity):
  How will society be able to cope with and manage these changes? Will they be able to make changes through policies and activities that minimize adverse impacts (or make the most of the opportunities presented)? Or will the expected changes increase their vulnerability?
  Can adaptation take place at sector level, or is there a need for more structural changes within society (e.g., economic diversification)?

Creation of vulnerability maps:

Once the key elements of vulnerability have been determined, digital vulnerability maps should be developed through analysis using a computer-based geographical information system (with maps of inter alia topography, hydrology, soils, vegetation / land use andaspects of human population). The analysis should be verified with local and national experts. This will identify the likely location(s) of vulnerable sectors and people for the range of likely possible climate futures (identified in 2 above).
The consultants will agree the mapping scale and other details of the vulnerability maps with the Project Manager and others in the team before final production (based on the models used, scale of additional maps / data used in the vulnerability analysis etc.).

The sub-national planners will have to interact with a multitude of stakeholders both during the mapping of vulnerabilities exercise and at the point of using the information generated by the mapping exercise. The purpose of the interaction is to inform decision-making regarding adaptation to climate change. The inclusion of stakeholders in planning processes leads to more robust (and legitimate) outcomes, by allowing the recognition and integration of alternative forms of knowledge into the processes, and by getting crucial support and buy-in for policy planning and project implementation.

Vulnerability is a dynamic condition that results from the interaction of hazards, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, all of which are likely to change in unknown ways in the future. It is imperative for the project and planners in Mbaleto have a mechanism for charting how vulnerability might change over time, particularly to determine the effectiveness (or otherwise) of any adaptation strategies adopted with the intention of reducing vulnerability.In order to ensure this, the data produced during the consultancy will remain the property of UNDP and the local implementing partners (inter alia ITCP, districts and NGOs).

The consultant will work closely with the Project Manager / ITCP Steering Committee / Mbale Regional Climate Change Forum, the Senior Technical Advisor, experts at the Global TACC Facility, also the consultants contracted to undertake other elements of the project.The consultant(s)will particularly benefit from contributions from experts from Wales, who have already begun working with the districts and NGOs on aspects of the profiles and vulnerability maps .

The results of this Activity will be used in the development and prioritization of adaptation and mitigation (consultancy 3) and incorporated into the Integrated Territorial Climate Plan (ITCP) of the Territorial Approach to Climate Change (TACC) project in the Mbale region of Uganda (consultancy 4).

Recommended reading:

• Mbale TACC Project Document (available from the Project Manager);
• Technical feasibility assessment of the TACC project for the Mbale region of Uganda (C4 EcoSolutions report, 2011 – available from the Project Manager);
• The following UNDP reports available from: http://www.beta.undp.org/undp/en/home/ourwork/environmentandenergy/focus_areas/climate_strategies/green_lecrds_guidancemanualsandtoolkits.html
  Mapping Climate Change Vulnerability and Impact Scenarios - A Guidebook for Sub-national Planners (UNDP, 2010)
  Formulating Climate Change Scenarios to Inform Climate - Resilient Development Strategies (UNDP, 2011)
  Managing the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Process (UNDP, 2005)
  Applying Climate Information for Adaptation Decision-Making: A Guidance and Resource Document (UNDP, 2011)
  Also,
  Uganda National Adaptation Programme of Action (RoU, 2007)
  The Republic of Uganda Sources and Sinks of Greenhouse Gases in Uganda - Final Report (RoU, 1996) (available from the Project Manager).

Deliverables and Payment Terms:

A comprehensive report on all elements of the consultancy (1-4) including details of the methodologies used in each component. Copies of the vulnerability maps (hard and soft copies) at a scale agreed with the Project Manager and other advisors.  

• Inception report - 5 working days after signing contract (10February 2012, at latest);
• Draft report and maps – by 26 March 2012;
• Final report and maps – by 6 April 2012;

Payment shall be made by UNDP to the consultants according to the following milestones:

• 1st – upon submission and acceptance of the draft report and maps - 25%;
• 2nd – upon submission and acceptance of the final report and maps – 75%.

Duration:

The tasks described above will be undertaken by one or two consultants commencing immediately upon the signature of the contract (6 February 2012 at the latest). The draft report and maps should be submitted to PMU by 26 March2012.  The Final Report and maps should be submitted to UNDP by6 April 2012 (45 working days in total).

• Fluency in written and spoken English;
• Ability to communicate effectively in English order to convey complex technical information to general audiences;
• Strong organizational and management skills;
• Proven ability to work in a multi-disciplinarary technical team;
• Excellent communication skills with ability to express complex technical information clearly, concisely and effectively English (both orally and in writing);
• A track-record of delivering high quality outputs on schedule.

Education and Experience:

UNDP Uganda seeks a consulting group to undertake this assignment (with support from the Global TACC, project’s Senior Technical Advisor and Welsh Assembly Government).

Each component of the work must be carried-out by relevantly experienced individuals, thus the group should demonstrate the following skills:

• A postgraduate degree from a recognized university in either applied meteorology /climatology or similar with specialization in climate change and at least 6-8 years relevant work experience including application of methodologies for climate change forecasting;
• A postgraduate degree from a recognized university in natural resources management / environmental sciences / agriculture and at least 6-8 years relevant work experience including the ability to identify the risks and assess the vulnerability of key sectors to the impacts of climate change;
• Knowledge of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change;
• Awareness of the predicted impacts of climate change on Uganda’s development across all sectors (inter alia energy, forestry, land use, agriculture, transportation, industry, waste management);
• Knowledge, skills and capacity to develop vulnerability maps using geographical information systems;
• Knowledge of Uganda's climate change policies, laws, institutions and management issues highly desirable;
• Strong interpersonal and written communication skills;
• Experience in UNDP project development is considered advantageous.

Language:

• Fluency and excellent command of written and spoken English is a necessity.

Application Procedure

Applicants are required to submit an application and proposals, which include the following:

Job Proposal:

• Letter of Interest;
• Explanation as to why you consider yourself suitable for the assignment;
• A brief methodology on the approach and implementation of the assignment.

Personal CV Highlighting past experience in similar projects. Work references - contact details (e-mail addresses) of referees.

Financial proposal indicating consultancy fee, lump sum fee or unit price together with any other expenses related to the assignment (e.g. travel costs, translation interpretation, holding of workshops/focus group discussion etc).

Please note that the system will only allow you to upload one document, therefore all the job and financial proposals are to be attached to the CVs and uploaded together at once.