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The consultant will undertake a detailed analysis of the climate change adaptation and mitigation options for the Mbale region (Mbale, Manafwa and Bududa Districts), including:
- Low carbon budgeting based on GHG emissions and energy needs assessment;
- Identification of adaptation and low carbon development (i.e. mitigation) options and opportunities;
- Economic analyses to compare and prioritize (in the order of no regret, negative cost, no cost and low cost) the options and opportunities;
- Analysis of potential synergies and trade-offs between the priority adaptation and mitigation measures.
Low carbon budgeting based on greenhouse gas emissions and energy needs assessment:
The urgency of mitigating GHG emissions means that screening (sub)sectors on the basis of GHG emissions before prioritizing on the basis of development priorities is important to maximize benefits from investments. In this respect, it is important that the stakeholder group discussions involve representatives of (sub)sectors that contribute highly to the territory’s GHG emissions. The sector-wise GHG emission data collection and analysis process can be as follows:
- Review national GHG inventory: It is important to first review Uganda’s GHG inventory (1996), established as part of the National Communications process, to identify relatively high GHG-emitting (sub)sectors that may have significant mitigation potential, and to identify any data/information gaps. However, Uganda does not have an up-to-date inventory – the full document was published in 1996 and has not been up-dated, thus the consultants should also collect information on new or emerging mitigation technologies;
- Identify key GHG-emitting (sub)sectors: This step involves an analysis of the interrelationships between emission (sub)sectors. Certain sectors can have important linkages with poverty reduction strategies identified in the national Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers;
- Review plans: This step involves a review of national and sectoral development plans and policies in the identified (sub)sectors. The aim is to develop an understanding of the expected future growth in GHG emissions, long term mitigation potential, as well as financial constraints that may impact on mitigation initiatives.
The consultants should take cognisance of the IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, which identify the following main sectors (IPCC, 2006) (energy; industrial process and product use; agriculture, forestry and other land use; waste). These main sector categories are further divided into activities (e.g., forest, crop and wetlands within the category “agriculture, forestry and other land uses” and "fuel combustion activities" within "Energy") This sector classification is linked to the ClimateTechWiki database.
The consultants should use the Bilane Carbone methodology to assess greenhouse gas emissions for the 3 districts of the Mbale Territory.
The energy needs assessment should be carried out based on the current situation then calculate future scenarios (for 2030 and 2050 – as used on the climate profiling), using information on predicted rates of population growth, planned changes in energy sources if renewables / energy efficient stoves etc. are used to substitute for traditional stoves / energy efficient charcoal production is adopted.
The consultants working on this task should interact and benefit from the work of EU/UNDP supported Climate Change Capacity Building Project for Uganda, which is currently under preparation. That project will involve a stock-taking exercise focusing on GHG emissions, Low Emission Development Strategies (LEDS), a National Mitigation Plan of Action (NAMAs), National Adaptation Plans (NAPA),also Monitoring Reporting and Verification (MRV) systems.
Identification of adaptation and low carbon development (i.e. mitigation) options and opportunities:
Adaptation and low carbon development options and opportunities for Mbale Region will be based on the identified and mapped vulnerabilities to climate change and the climate change scenarios.
Identify Adaptation Options:
Based on this new knowledge of vulnerability, the consultants should identify adaptation interventions (including disaster risk reduction) and consider the effect they will have on that vulnerability, as adaptation interventions need to respond to both known risks and the uncertainty of possible climate change futures.
The consultants should compile a detailed list of all possible adaptation options for the project area, without consideration to their efficiency (adaptation is a new challenge - new and innovative strategies have to be promoted), gathering information from:
- Expert Judgment, including from on-going activities elsewhere in Uganda, also ClimateTechWiki , TerrAfrica and WOCAT;
- Spatial Analogues.
The consultants should refer to and focus on the Category A coping strategies identified in NAPA – those which have “positive environmental impacts and tend to be innovative” (p41 RoU, 2007). Also, those in the project document, namely:
- Water resource management;
- Biodiversity conservation;
- Infrastructure planning.
In close consultation with the project team, implementing partners and local stakeholders, the consultants should undertake desk reviews of the adaption options considered appropriate to the Mbale region, particularly identifying and reviewing:
- Agricultural practices (particularly to benefit small holders and subsistence farmers, who will be most affected by climate change – “climate smart agriculture” etc);
- Protection of natural resources to protect ecosystem services (wetland use, bush burning, cultivation near water courses);
- Land use planning;
- Afforestation and reforestation;
- Rainwater harvesting;
- Protection of infrastructure.
Identify Mitigation / Low Carbon Development Options:
The consultants should compile a detailed list of all possible mitigation options for Mbale, without consideration to their efficiency (as for adaptation, mitigation is a new challenge - new and innovative strategies have to be promoted), gathering information from:
- Expert Judgmentincludingfrom on-going activities elsewhere in Uganda (inter alia DFID, EU, giz, NORAD projects and programmes), also ClimateTechWiki ;
- Spatial Analogues.
In close consultation with the project team, implementing partners and local stakeholders, the consultants should undertake desk reviews of mitigation options considered appropriate to the region, including:
- Inter-urban and inter-modal transport;
- Promotion of decentralised cleaner energy production, especially through renewable resources;
- Composting;
- Waste recycling;
- Afforestation and reforestation;
- Coffee agroforestry;
- Fuel efficient wood stoves.
Economic analyses and prioritization:
With respect to each of the options agreed as appropriate and feasible in Mbale, the consultants should:
- Undertake cost-benefit analysis;
- Undertake a comprehensive risk assessment.
Subsequently:
- Prioritise adaptation options in the order of no regret, negative cost, no cost and low cost;
- Prioritise mitigation options in the order of no regret, negative cost, no cost and low cost.
[To systematically prioritise options, the consultants should use a performance matrix (following the example on p34 of the UNDP publication “Technology Needs Assessment for Climate Change” (2010).]
Analysis of potential synergies and trade-offs:
“Promoting increased resilience to the impacts of climate change is closely intertwined with development choices and actions that cover a variety of sectors, such as energy, agriculture, health, water, and infrastructure. In particular, it is essential to consider both the synergies and trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation activities, including possible negative and positive side effects. Focusing too much on isolated adaptation goals, without considering side effects (e.g., cross-sectoral effects) and linkages with other goals, could lead to missed opportunities. Strong coordinating mechanisms at the national and sub-national levels are therefore required.” (quote from: Designing Climate Change Adaptation Initiatives, UNDP 2010).
A comprehensive assessment should be made of the synergies and trade-offs between the high priority adaptation and mitigation options for Mbale, Manafwa and Bududa Districts. These may be common to each district, or district-specific.
The consultants should hold extensive consultations and adopt a broad participatory approach to this assignment - involving all sectors and groups in society (including women, who are recognised as being particularly affected by climate change). The consultants should also liaise and benefit from on-going work in this field being pursued by other programmes / projects in Uganda, notably the National Climate Change Unit, GTZ and the Uganda Carbon Bureau.
The consultants will work closely with the Project Manager / ITCP Steering Committee / Mbale Regional Climate Change Forum, the Senior Technical Advisor, experts at the Global TACC Facility, also the consultants contracted to undertake other elements of the project.The consultant(s) will particularly benefit from contributions from expertise from the Welsh Assembly Government in aspects of these tasks (details to be agreed prior to contract signature).
The results of this work will beincorporated into the Integrated Territorial Climate Plan (ITCP) (consultancy 4) and the CC Policy and Investment Package (consultancy 5) of the Territorial Approach to Climate Change (TACC) project in the Mbale region of Uganda.
Recommended reading:
Deliverables and Payment Terms:
A comprehensive report should be prepared describing all elements of the consultancy and the conclusions.The report should be submitted according to the following milestones:
- Inception report - 5 working days after signing contract (12 March 2012 latest);
- Draft report to PMU by 16 April 2012;
- Draft report (incorporating changes requested by PMU) should be presented to a stakeholder workshop (organised by the PMU, facilitated by the consultants, to be held between 19 and 23April);
- Final report (incorporating changes agreed at workshop) should be submitted to the PMU by30 April 2012.
Payments shall be made by UNDP to the consultants according to the following milestones:
- 1st – upon submission and acceptance of the draft report - 25%;
- 2nd – upon submission and acceptance of the final report – 75%.
Duration
The tasks described above will be undertaken immediately upon the signature of the contract (6 March 2012 latest). The final report should be submitted to UNDP 30 April 2012 (a total of 40 working days).
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