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There is no doubt that climate change will present a serious challenge to economic development in the country. Energy, agriculture, forestry, and other economic sectors will all suffer from the anticipated changes in the country’s climate. Decision makers at all levels of government and in the private sector need information about the economic impacts of climate and the costs and benefits of adapting to it. Careful planning and strategic investments will be required to adapt to the changes and mitigate their impact while pursuing a longterm sustainable growth and development path.
In the past UNDP supported the Government in the preparation of the First and Second National Communication on Climate Change, the National Strategy for the Clean Development Mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol in the first commitment period 2008 – 2012 and developed a Climate Change Screening Report, which highlights the incorporation of climate change considerations into national strategies and assesses the impacts of climate change on key national development plans. In the previous years several important national strategies and action plans were adopted which provide strategic guidelines for the development of key sectors, and are important for this assignment, e.g. Sustainable Development Strategy, Strategy for Energy Development, National Strategy for Environmental Approximation, Second National Environmental Action Plan, Public Investment Program, Energy Efficiency Strategy, Strategy for Sustainable Development of Forestry, Agriculture and Rural Development. Currently, UNDP is supporting the Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning in the preparation of the Third National Communication on Climate Change. The stocktaking exercise is currently under way and the official project initiation is expected for the last quarter of this year.
SCOPE OF WORK
UNDP would like to engage a consultant who will prepare a rapid assessment of the costs of climate change in the country. Based on the available literature, the consultant shall identify potential climate change impacts in the most vulnerable sectors (agriculture, water, forestry, biodiversity, tourism and human health) and present preliminary cost implications of climate change on the Macedonian economy. The study shall contribute to a more detailed understanding of the costs of climate change impacts in the absence of adaptation policies. The assessment shall highlight the cost of adaptation options and provide policy recommendations in light of the country’s national development objectives, especially “no-regret/low-regret” adaptation options, as well as economic and business opportunities arising due to climate change. By linking the economic assessments to the sectoral policy landscapes, the report shall be of benefit not only for climate change policy-making, but also policy- and decision-making related to the sectors scrutinized in the report. The study shall discuss how the physical impacts might affect not only the economic welfare of producers, investors and consumers in different economic sectors, but also how they might affect indicators of economic activity such as gross domestic product, personal consumption expenditures, private investment and government spending.
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Duties and Responsibilities
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Under the supervision of the UNDP Programme Officer, the Consultant shall be responsible for the following:
- Identify the data and state-of-the-art models and methods needed to estimate the economic impacts of climate change and the benefits and costs of adaptation in targeted vulnerable sectors;
- Make rapid preliminary estimates of the economic value of the impacts of climate change in the country, with special emphasis on agriculture, water, forestry, biodiversity, tourism and human health, as well as the corresponding costs and benefits of adaptation options;
- Make rapid assessment of the costs and benefits of adaptation within the energy sector;
- Recommend options for low cost and no regret measures of adaptation and prioritize adaptation measures based on an economic assessment for the short, medium and long term.
DELIVERABLES
1. The main deliverable of the assignment is a Final Report which shall comprise the following chapters:
- Executive Summary (not more than 3-5 pages)
- Economics of climate change - A brief introduction about the economics of climate change, including the role of economics in assessing the impacts of climate change and an introduction to the concepts of climate change damages and the benefits and costs of adaptation.
- A description of the data and models and various approaches that have been used to estimate the economic value of climate change damages, the benefits and costs of adaptation in the target sectors, and other impacts of climate change.
- Presentation of the key findings of the assessment, i.e. costs of climate change impacts in agriculture, water, forestry, biodiversity, tourism and human health; costs and benefits of adaptation; recommendations for low cost and no regret measures of adaptation; and prioritization of adaptation measures based on an economic assessment for the short, medium and long term.
- The Way Forward – Conclusions and Recommendations
- References
The expected length of the Report is between 40-60 pages.
2. Draft report to be submitted 2 months after signing of contract.
3. Short mission to Skopje (5 days) to present draft report on a workshop and to meet key stakeholders.
TERMS AND CONDITIONS FOR PROVISION OF SERVICES
Language :
The report shall be prepared in proof read English language.
Timeframe
The start up of the assignment is expected end of July 2010 and it shall be completed no later than October 2010. Estimated number of days for completion of the assignment is 40 days.
Reporting
The Consultant shall report to the UNDP Programme Officer.
During the fulfilment of the assignment, the contractor will ensure regular communication with the UNDP CO. The contractor shall ensure quality and timely delivery of the expected results and will regularly inform the UNDP of the progress as well as any obstacles that might occur.
Working materials
UNDP will provide the Consultant with background information and data to the extend possible;
- Data Gathering and Stakeholder Consultations
The contractor shall be available during the duration of the assignment for video and telephone consultations with key stakeholders, which will be organized by UNDP.
Travel
Travel will be organized by UNDP. Travel costs and DSA will be covered in accordance with the applicable UNDP rules and procedures.
Payment
1. 20% - First installment upon signing of the contract
2. 30% - Second installment upon submission and approval of the draft report
3. 50% - Third installment upon submission and approval of the final report
REQUIRED DOCUMENTS FOR SUBMISSION
- CV of the Consultant (United Nations Personnel History form)
- Brief methodology and approach (max. 2 pages) on how the assignment will be carried out, including detailed timetable of the proposed activities;
- List of relevant scientific publications, reports in the field of the assignment;
- Financial offer – lump sum in US$ for delivery of product
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Competencies
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- Experience in providing consultancy and advisory services. Track record of at least three relevant assignments.
- Knowledge of environment and climate change policies in the European Union context shall be considered as a strong asset.
- Previous experience in preparation of studies, reviews, recommendations, development of comprehensive reports.
- Excellent analytical, communication and facilitation skills as well as writing experience (number of relevant scientific publications).
- Excellent knowledge in English language.
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Required Skills and Experience
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- At least Master’s degree in economics, environmental science/studies/engineering/economics or social science. PhD or PhD candidate status in environmental/climate change economics or climate change adaptation shall be considered as a strong asset.
- At least 10 years of professional experience in research projects related to climate change.
Evaluation Criteria:
- Cumulative Analyses (70% technical + 30 % Financial offer)
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