'VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON NAMIBIA'S PROTECTED AREAS'
Interested people must demonstrate capabilities and experience to conduct an assessment of climate change in relation to protected areas and recommend possible responses and the evaluation of factors that make up such interventions.
Applicants should provide clear, specific evidence of their background, qualifications and experience which are exclusively relevant to climate change scenarios, impacts and vulnerability assessments as well as a proposal outlining how they propose to undertake the project, the process and timeframes and a quote to complete the work.. Please findherewith the details of the project.
Scope
This study focuses on 1) Vulnerability of wildlife to climate change in Namibia and effectiveness of the current PA network in safeguarding wildlife populations and biodiversity under different climate change scenarios; and 2) Economic impacts of climate change-ascribed wildlife and biodiversity losses on sectors dependent on wildlife resources such as tourism and game products industries. The study will include 4 landscape level case study sites, each of which includes a national PA(s).
Specific Tasks
Will be expected to assess the impact of climate change on Namibia's PAs. In particular four protected landscape conservation areas shall be selected as case study sites representing a range of Namibian ecosystems, from wetlands in the north, woodlands in the centre, desert along the coast and arid lands in the south. Each site will contain at least one national PA and the study will aim to review the effectiveness of the PAs within each protected landscape conservation area in sustaining wildlife population and biodiversity as well as examining development options in the face of climate change. In each case and overall the following factors shall be identified:
1. Summarise the existing literature and known information with regard to climate change projections in protected areas and in Namibia 2. Identify the obvious information and knowledge gaps in Namibia in relation to climate change and climate change in protected areas 3. Identify the impacts and risks of climate change to these ecosystems i.e. species extinction, fire, weedspread, increased drought or flooding 4. Identify the degree/extent that these impacts and risks may have on the ecosystem in the short, medium and long term 5. Conduct a sensitivity analysis of wildlife, flora and fauna, habitats and water resources to different levels of climate change risk using the best fitting global climate change models and estimate in quantitative terms what this will mean for a) land productivity in terms of ecosystem integrity and b) game productivity. 6. Highlight the potential ecological impact of these factors on the protected area i.e. species extinction 7. Identify the social and economic costs of these changes on the protected area system including loss of economic benefits associated with PA tourism 8. Assess social and economic costs for 1) failure to adapt (the default situation) and 2) adaptation options 9. Identify methods and interventions for how the impacts and risk of climate change can be avoided, remedied or mitigated, including the ecological, social and economic value of these interventions 10. Identify indicators and methods for measuring the extent of climate change impact on Namibia's protected areas 11. Quantify the existing carbon sequestration (millions of tonnes CO2) that results from each case study site and all protected areas in Namibia 12. Identify the opportunities for protected areas to sequester or off-set further carbon emissions and obtain revenue from such activities 13. The consultancy should provide recommendation about the interventions, procedures and institutional arrangements required for climate change considerations, including adaptation measures so that they are further enhanced and accounted for in protected area policies and management.
To inform this process a separate literature review will also be required. This will need to focus on the impact of climate change in protected areas and the impact of climate change in Namibia and the region.
Outputs:
The key outcomes from this consultancy will be 1) a literature review on the impact of climate change in a)protected areas and b) on Namibia and in the region; 2) A report scoping and assessing the impact of climate in Namibia's protected areas, identifying their vulnerability, providing specific vulnerability indicators, determining the economic and social costs associated with adaptation and making adaptation recommendations on key policy and management interventions as response measures to be adopted; 3) A colour, A1, poster that explains the ecological, social and economic impact of climate change on Namibia's protected areas and some of the management interventions that may be needed to mitigate these impacts; 4) A map of Namibia indicating location of case study areas (selected 4 sites); 5) A 5-10 pages policy summary report comprising key messages from the vulnerability assessment which should include: i) model agreement – yes or no ii) direction/magnitude of changes ii) primary and secondary impacts iv) impacts that are not possible to model and why v) interaction with non-climate stressors; 6) A power point presentation targeted to national and regional politicians and policy-makers
Application by email please.